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You’d say Kentucky’s mired in a rut, then you’d look at the team’s win total over the six years prior to these heady days of bowl berth after bowl berth: two, two, seven, four, two and three. So this five-year bowl run is nothing short of miraculous, whether or not Kentucky gets to six wins by going 4-0 during its shockingly weak non-conference slate and 2-6 in the deadly SEC. Who cares? For all the talk about it being otherwise, there are really only three schools which look at football as merely a time-killer: North Carolina, Duke and Kentucky. Any schools that say otherwise are merely trying to lessen the embarrassing play of its football program, more or less. Kentucky football is just here to pass the time, making the idea that Kentucky is stuck in a seven-win rut all the more ludicrous. Seven wins? Sign me up.

Conference
SEC, East

Location
Lexington, Ky.

Nickname
Wildcats

Returning starters
14 (6 offense, 8 defense)

Last year’s ranking
No. 61

2010 record
(6-7, 2-6)

Last years
re-ranking
No. 69

2011 schedule

• Sept. 1
  W. Kentucky (in Nashville)
• Sept. 10
  Central Michigan
• Sept. 17
  Louisville
• Sept. 24
  Florida
• Oct. 1
  at L.S.U.
• Oct. 8
  at S. Carolina
• Oct. 2
  Jacksonville St.
• Oct. 29
  Mississippi St.
• Nov. 5
  at Mississippi
• Nov. 12
  at Vanderbilt
• Nov. 19
  at Georgia
• Nov. 26
  Tennessee

Last years prediction

While there are players to like on both sides of the ball, Kentucky will not out-talent, for lack of a better phrase, any teams on its conference slate. So why do I have Kentucky in this spot, and why do I have the Wildcats landing that sixth win? Because nothing has changed: Kentucky never looks good on paper, never seems to have the pieces to upset a team or two in SEC play, yet always does — at least over the last four years. While my concerns about the long-term viability of the program will not be addressed until I see Phillips in action, I like the Wildcats to continue its bowl streak. Though not by much: I’m thinking six wins.

2010 recap

In a nutshell After a two-year lull, the offense got back on track. This is due in large part to vastly improved quarterback play, a program concern following the departure of Andre Woodson in 2007. Surprisingly, it was done with a similar cast of characters: Mike Hartline just grew up, on the field and off, it seems, and his development was the key factor behind Kentucky’s return to offensive prominence. The Wildcats ended the year ranked fifth in the SEC in scoring — adding nearly a touchdown per game off the 2009 total — and second in passing, and while the running game seemed secondary it was healthy enough to keep opposing defenses very honest. It’s a good thing the offense stepped up: the defense stepped back after two great years, allowing at least 20 points in 11 of 13 games. When the dust settled, however, and even with a disappointing bowl loss to Pittsburgh, this was another fine season for Kentucky football.

High point A 31-28 win over South Carolina on Oct. 16: SEC, meet Joker Phillips. This nationally-televised affair gave U.K. all the positive coverage it would need all season; it also gave the Wildcats the boost they’d need to reach bowl play, which is more important. A road win at Louisville to start the year was impressive in hindsight. The Wildcats have won four straight over their in-state rival.

Low point Another loss to Tennessee. That extends the losing streak to 26 years, and if Kentucky wasn’t able to beat the Volunteers at one point over the last four years it’s probably never going to happen. At least Kentucky had clinched bowl eligibility by that point; a win would have sent Tennessee to a 5-7 finish, however, so the Wildcats should at it as a missed opportunity. I was very disappointed in how Kentucky folded against a demoralized Pittsburgh team in a BBVA Compass Bowl loss.

Tidbit As stated above, the Wildcats allowed 11 opponents to score at least 20 points last fall. That’s not merely a fairly common occurrence in the program’s history: U.K. allowed nine opponents to do so in 1990 and 1994, 10 to do so in 1998, 2000 and 2001. Such defensive ineptitude is also something Kentucky has done even during this recent bowl run, back in 2006 and 2007. In 2006, the Wildcats allowed 10 opponents to score at least 20 points, holding only Texas State, Mississippi and Tennessee to 7, 14 and 17 points, respectively. A year later, U.K. allowed every opponent but two, Eastern Kentucky and Florida Atlantic, to under 20 points. Last fall, the Wildcats held Louisville to 16 points and Akron to just 10 — that was a great defensive showing.

Tidbit (100-word preview edition) It’s that time again. Here’s how it works: I give you a quiz question; you become the first person to answer the question; you win the opportunity to pen a 100-word preview of your favorite team when it appears on the Countdown. Get it? Good. Here’s the question:

Kentucky has reached bowl play in five consecutive seasons, a new school record. The Wildcats are one of five SEC schools to go bowling in each of the last five years, joining Alabama, Florida, Georgia and L.S.U., and are one of 28 teams nationwide to have done so. Can you name the 28 schools that have played in a bowl in each of the last five years?

Teams already spoken for: California (Katster), Iowa (M Meyer), Northwestern (NUwildcat09), Oregon (Eskynyt), Pittsburgh (htp2012), Texas (Burnt Orange), Washington (Dr. Klahn).

Former players in the N.F.L.

15 WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay), FB John Connor (New York Jets), DE Jeremy Jarmon (Washington), LB Micah Johnson (Kansas City), WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo), LB Braxton Kelley (Denver), CB Trevard Lindley (Philadelphia), P Tim Masthay (Green Bay), P Glenn Pakulak (Oakland), DT Corey Peters (Atlanta), DT Myron Pryor (New England), RB Alfonso Smith (Arizona), TE Jacob Tamme (Indianapolis), OT Garry Williams (Carolina), LB Wesley Woodyard (Denver).

Arbitrary top five list

Kentuckys N.B.A. draft picks from 1989-2010
1. PG Rajon Rondo, 2007 (1st round, 21st overall).
2. SF Tayshaun Prince, 2003 (1st, 23rd).
3. SF Antoine Walker, 1997 (1st, 6th).
4. SF Jamal Mashburn, 1994 (1st, 4th).
5. SG Rex Chapman, 1989 (1st, 8th).

Coaching

Joker Phillips (Kentucky ’86), 6-7 after one season. He picked up right where Rich Brooks left off, extending Kentuckys streak of bowl berths to five while, like Brooks, not faring all that well in the SEC. Phillips had been the coach-in-waiting since 2008, patiently waiting his turn under Brooks, who brought Phillips back to Lexington as part of his initial staff. Make no mistake: while Phillips has served at other, potentially more prestigious programs, he is all Kentucky. That dates back to his playing days as a wide receiver — one of the more prolific pass-catchers in school history — and his early days as an assistant, which began once his professional career concluded in 1988. Phillips spent the first nine years of his coaching career in Lexington, beginning as a graduate assistant before progressing to the team’s receivers coach, where he spent six years from 1991-96. His tenure under Brooks, starting in 2003, began as Kentucky’s recruiting coordinator and, again, receivers coach. He passed two years in that role before taking on offensive coordinator duties in 2005; he held that position through the end of 2009, though he shared play-calling duties in Kentucky’s Music City Bowl loss to Clemson. Phillips has had a distinct impact on this side of the ball: Kentucky set a new school record for points in a season in 2007, scoring 475 points — 36.5 points per game. He sandwiched his stints at his alma mater with stops at five B.C.S. conference programs: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Notre Dame and South Carolina, all coaching the receivers. There were two key factors to appreciate about Phillips as he undertook his endeavor: one, he is a gifted offensive mind; and two, he had the opportunity to learn at the feet of one of this generations most under-appreciated coaches. Hes off to a fine start.

Players to watch

There are a lack of skill players to work with, but that doesn’t bother the offensive line. If Mike Hartline’s play at quarterback was one of the more pleasant surprises of the SEC season, the play of the Kentucky offensive line was of equal importance to this offense’s climb from mediocrity to the upper echelon of the SEC. It wasn’t supposed to go this way, both at quarterback and up front: this line broke in four new starters yet was able to take a great leap forward, with plenty of credit going to first-year line coach Mike Summers.

This year’s line should be even better. Four starters return in the same roles as in 2010: left tackle Chandler Burden, left guard Stuart Hines, center Matt Smith and right guard Larry Warford. Each brings something to the table: Warford and Hines earned all-SEC accolades a year ago – Warford’s a physical presence on the strong side of the line; Smith started every game in the middle of the line; and Burden, a converted defensive lineman, has the athletic ability to excel on the blind side. And there’s depth with senior Jake Lanefski, though he’s battled injury issues in the past, as well as senior Billy Joe Murphy, who is penciled as the starter at right tackle but has shown an ability to slide in at several spots along the line. This line is really good – and very underrated, lost in the shuffle of a deep SEC.

Morgan Newton takes over for Hartline, with the hope that another year of experience turns him into the player most expected him to be when he joined the Wildcats two years ago. He hasn’t been that program-defining player, no; nor is he quite the athlete some believed he would be, as Newton won’t really make a huge difference with his legs. But he’s Kentucky’s only option now that Hartline and Ryan Mossakowski have left the building, so the Wildcats desperately need the light to turn on. Maybe this is the year: it’s not as if Newton lacks experience, and several recent Kentucky quarterbacks – Andre Woodson and Hartline – have turned a corner over their last two seasons.

New running backs coach Steve Pardue will be tasked with rebuilding the backfield with the departure of Kentucky’s three leading rushers – Derrick Locke, first and foremost. Sophomore Raymond Sanders (254 yards, 3 touchdowns) will get first crack at taking over at running back; he’s the most experienced ball-carrier on the roster, as well as a potential receiving threat out of the backfield. Another sophomore, Jonathan George, has enough speed to make him a nice compliment to Sanders. The opportunity is certainly there for any back on the roster to make a move, like redshirt freshman Brandon Gainer or even incoming freshmen Josh Clemons and Marcus Caffey.

Kentucky won’t move to the 3-4 wholesale, but will implement that scheme while retaining the familiar 4-3 look in certain situation. The move, which will be implemented by Steve Brown and new addition Rick Minter – the two will share coordinator duties – will offer some relief to a defensive line that suffered some losses due to graduation. But the front is really the only group touched by losses: in all, U.K. brings back its top 11 tacklers from a year ago. Perhaps the defense can carry the load as the offense rebuilds.

Any discussion of this U.K. defense must begin with weak side linebacker Danny Trevathan, a clear all-American and SEC Defensive Player of the Year candidate heading into the fall. He was a menace in 2010: 144 tackles (16 for loss) and 3 sacks, with the former total the most in the SEC. He could have opted for the N.F.L., so his decision to come back provides an incalculable lift to this defense. When Kentucky does line up in a 4-3 look, it will be senior Ronnie Snead (61 tackles) in the middle and rising star Ridge Wilson (3o tackles in a limited role), a junior, on the strong side. Wilson could also line up at end, giving some heat to a questionable pass rush. But U.K. does need to find some depth when it does go to the 3-4, so one of a group of sophomores and freshmen, including Jewell Ratliff, Avery Williamson and Malcom McDuffen, must step up.

It’s been the story over all of Kentucky’s bowl run: the Wildcats have weapons in the secondary and all-conference performers at linebacker but struggle up front, especially against the run. But the Wildcats don’t fare too poorly in getting pressure in the backfield; the key will be developing a front seven that stands tall against the run, with that quest beginning with the search for three capable linemen. U.K. can rely on experience at end, but need more from both Collins Ukwu and Taylor Wyndham – the latter has the size to move inside on passing downs, increasing his flexibility.

What about inside? Kentucky brings back contributors like Mark Crawford (24 tackles, 4.5 for loss) and Luke McDermott (17 tackles, 3.5 sacks), though how each could transition to playing on the nose remains to be seen. But that’s not a bad pairing when U.K. does go with a 4-3 look. Line depth took a big hit earlier this month when Brice Laughlin and Nermin Delic opted to leave the program; both would have been part of the rotation this fall, and perhaps major difference-makers down the road.

Every piece of this underrated secondary returns in 2011: five starters, due to Kentucky’s tendency to spend much of its time with an extra defensive back on the field. The star is safety Winston Guy, a second-team all-SEC pick a year ago after finishing second on the team in tackles (106) and leading the way with three interceptions. Guy has the size and tackling ability to perhaps move down to a hybrid-linebacker role in the new defensive alignment. Junior Martavius Nelson (55 tackles, 2 sacks) moves from cornerback to free safety, joining Guy and senior Mychal Bailey (57 stops, 2 interceptions) to give U.K. three very talented safeties along the back end of the defense. Bailey must do some work in the classroom before being reinstated on the football team, however.

So the Wildcats are loaded at safety; what about cornerback? Much will depend on senior Randall Burden’s continued development. While not quite on the same level as some of Kentucky’s recent all-SEC cornerbacks, Burden has showed flashes of all-conference talent – the key will be putting it all together. Likewise with senior Anthony Mosley, a converted receiver who pitched in with 36 tackles and an interception in 2010. The second group consists of junior Cartier Rice and sophomore Jerrell Priester, with U.K. expecting big things of the latter.

Position battle(s) to watch

Wide receiver You don’t replace a Randall Cobb. He was a once-in-a-generation sort of talent, the sort rarely seen in Lexington: Cobb will be sorely missed. As will Chris Matthews, who broke through in his senior season, but while U.K. will miss his production he’s closer to replaceable. That’s because the Wildcats have similarly lanky, athletic options coming up the pipeline: one is 6’5 senior Matt Roark, though he hasn’t cracked into his vein of potential as of yet. Junior La’Rod King, all 6’4 of him, is closer to breaking through after serving as Kentucky’s third option in 2010, making 36 catches for 478 yards. Fellow juniors E.J. Fields and Aaron Boyd also come in around 6’4, giving the Wildcats four tall receivers to work with in the passing game. Then theres junior Gene McCaskill, who was part of the rotation in 2009 but missed last fall with an A.C.L. injury. But none are as proven as Matthews; none can come close to replicating just what Cobb brought to the table, though there are no receivers in the F.B.S. who can do just what Cobb did for the Wildcats in 2011. Maybe sophomore Brian Adams can be that sort of multifaceted option, now that he’s seems recovered from the dangerous health scare that threatened his life two years ago. Adams is a very nice athlete, but he’ll need to have a monster year if U.K. hopes to receive similar production at receiver.

Game(s) to watch

As always, Kentucky needs to go 4-0 outside of the SEC. Three games are definite wins, with Louisville the one game that could go either way. In terms of conference play, U.K. will, as always, look at Vanderbilt as the fifth win and aim for an upset. If the SEC does nothing else, it provides the chance for an upset.

Season breakdown & prediction

In a nutshell Can the offense keep up last year’s pace? I can’t see it happening. Newton is a nice prospect at quarterback, but I’m not sure if he’s ready – or if he’ll ever be ready – to have quite the season Hartline had a year ago. He’s only a junior, however, and still only somewhat inexperienced, so there’s still time for him to reach his full potential. There are similar losses at running back, and the holes at receiver are extremely daunting. Even with a very good offensive line there’s really little chance that U.K. will remain in the top half of the SEC offensively, which is a concern. But those concerns are dealt with in part by the presence of a stout defense, which might have issues up front but returns enough to lift U.K. right into the bowl mix. And that’s where we’ll find Kentucky, once again: hovering around six wins, with four victories coming outside of the SEC and two – hopefully – coming in the SEC. It’s nearly a guarantee, actually, that the Wildcats will land five wins from the non-conference slate and from Vanderbilt – though the Commodores look to be getting better quickly under James Franklin. Will Kentucky get that sixth win? It’ll be a dogfight, as always, but perhaps the Wildcats deserve the benefit of the doubt. I’m guessing that U.K. will end the regular season 6-6, 2-6 in the SEC, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wildcats get stuck at the five-win mark.

Dream season The Wildcats up the total to eight wins, four of which come in the SEC.

Nightmare season U.K. cant get it done offensively, and while the defense is up to the task it cant do quite enough: 4-8, 0-8 in the SEC.

In case you were wondering

Where do Kentucky fans congregate? Kentucky has more fan sites than any other program in the F.B.S.; unfortunately, the majority are dedicated to U.K. basketball. So where do you turn? Start with the big boys, Cats Pause and Kentucky Sports Report, but also check out Wildcat Nation and A Sea of Blue. You can also try the Web site of The Lexington Herald-Leader.

Word Count

Through 49 teams 139,736.

Up Next

Who is No. 71? Abraham Lincoln only visited tomorrows universitys home state once, back in 1856, during which time he made a speech campaigning for then-Presidential hopeful Charles Fremont in the city that houses tomorrows university.

Over the next 18 month, you will see a number of prospects for the Class of 2013 in the state of Florida.

Because there are as many as 375 Division 1 players in this class, there are a number of athletes who will be listed by different sources as a top prospect to watch. If you’ve followed recruiting in this state for any length of time, you will continue to find prospects right up until February 2013.

This listing is a starting point as we head into summer. With camps, combines, practices, 7-on-7 tournaments and games, many of these players will either play their way up – or down the list. Remember, if there are names not listed, this is the first of many updates the Miami Herald will make as we continue to cover the state with player evaluation and promotion of all players at every class!

Thank you for making us one of the most valuable information sources for high school football in the state of Florida. It’s something we’ve done for over 4 decades – when there was no internet or video to reference.

* PHOTO OF DERRICK HENRY COURTESY OF THE NEWS LEADER.


1. Derrick Henry, RB, 6-3, 220, Yulee
 2. Stacey Coley, WR, 6-1, 175, Oakland Park Northeast
 3. Laremy Tunsil, OL, 6-6, 280, Lake City Columbia 
4. Greg Bryant, RB, 5-10, 200, Delray American Heritage 
5. Richard Benjamin, WR, 6-1, 170, Tampa Bay Tech 
6. Cord Sandberg, QB, 6-2, 186, Bradenton Manatee
 7. Leon McQuay III, S, 6-2, 180, Seffner Armwood 
8. Adam Lane, RB, 5-9, 205, Winter Haven
 9. Jordan Cunningham, WR, 6-1, 185, Davie University
 10. Sandly Jean-Felix, OL, 6-6, 295, Lauderdale Lakes Boyd Anderson 
11. Quinton Powell, DE, 6-3, 220, Daytona Beach Mainland 
12. Trey Daniels, LB, 6-2, 205, Cape Coral 
13. Vernon Hargreaves III, DB, 5-10, 170, Tampa Wharton
 14. Jamal Carter, S, 6-2, 195, Miami Southridge
 15. Jayron Kearse, Athlete, 6-4, 185, Fort Myers Cypress Lake
 16. Ahmad Fulwood, WR, 6-4, 190, Jacksonville Bishop Kenny
 17. James Hearns, LB, 6-3, 225, Tallahassee Lincoln 
 18. Joey Bosa, DL, 6-3, 230, Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas
 19. Matthew Thomas, LB, 6-3, 195, Miami Booker T. Washington
 20. Nick Washington, S, 6-0, 182, Jacksonville Trinity Christian
 21. Kelvin Taylor, RB, 5-11, 200, Belle Glade Glades Day
 22. Marcell Harris, DB, 6-1, 195, Groveland South Lake
 23. Matthew Dayes, RB, 5-9, 205, Weston Cypress Bay
 24. Devin Washington, DE, 6-3, 220, Orlando East River
 25. Travis Johnson, WR, 6-4, 200, Tampa Jesuit 
 26. Tarean Folston, RB, 5-11, 190, Cocoa
 27. Eric Carter, WR, 5-9, 175, Lakeland Lake Gibson
 28. Fred Coppet, RB, 5-9, 180, Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas 
29. Daniel McMillan, LB, 6-1, 220, Jacksonville First Coast 
30. Reggie Wilkerson, WR, 5-11, 170, Citra North Marion 
31. Tanner Crow, OL, 6-4, 285, Panama City Arnold 
32. Jamonte Jones, DB, 5-9, 175, Ocala Trinity Catholic
 33. Jordan Sherit, DE, 6-3, 225, Tampa Hillsborough
 34. Sojourn Shelton, DB, 5-9, 175, Plantation
 35. Asianti Woulard, QB, 6-4, 200, Winter Park
 36. Kermit Whitfield, WR, 5-10, 165, Orlando Jones
 37. Terrance Alls, WR, 6-0, 170, Miami Dade Christian
 38. T.J. Johnson, DB, 5-8, 170, Cape Coral 
39. Lorenzo Woodley, RB, 6-0, 200, Miami Christopher Columbus
 40. Ryan Green, RB, 5-9, 170, St. Petersburg Catholic
 41. Demarcus Walker, DE, 6-4, 255, Jacksonville Sandalwood 
42. Darryl Richardson, QB, 6-6, 215, Seffner Armwood 
43. Damonte Jones, DB, 5-9, 175, Ocala Trinity Catholic
 44. Cameron Livingston, WR, 6-2, 181, Ocala Vanguard
 45. Taj Williams, WR, 6-4, 185, Tallahassee Lincoln
 46. Deadrin Senat, DL, 6-1, 270, Immokalee
 47. Reggie Davis, WR, 6-1, 180, Tallahassee Lincoln
 48. Jordan Leggett, TE, 6-5, 220, Navarre
 49. Tommie Young, RB, 6-2, 205, Madison County
 50. Jordan Tucker, LB, 6-3, 200, Leesburg 51. Denver Kirkland, OL, 6-5, 300, Miami Booker T. Washington
 52. Eric Harrell, RB, 5-10, 185, Orlando Dr. Phillips 53. Jesus Wilson, WR, 5-8, 175, Miami Christopher Columbus
 54. Jaranta Lewis, QB, 6-0, 180, Weston Cypress Bay
 55. Alvin Bailey, WR, 5-10, 175, Seffner Armwood
 56. Larry Brihm, QB, 6-0, 200, Delray Village Academy 
57. Arron Baker, LB, 5-10, 185, Belle Glade Glades Central
 58. Corey Vereen, OLB, 6-3, 220, West Orange
 59. Greg Abrams, DB, 5-9, 165, Lakeland Kathleen
 60. Nick Internicola, DE/TE, 6-4, 230, Davie University
 61. Monty Nelson, DT, 6-2, 310, Plantation 
62. Alex Montgomery, WR, 6-2, 190, Weston Cypress Bay 
63. Jeremiah Green, DB, 5-9, 160, Tampa Hillsborough 
64. Xavier Richardson, WR, 6-3, 190, Immokalee
 65. Jacquez Walker, WR, 6-4, 175, Cottondale 
66. Corey Todd, QB, 6-3, 210, Naples First Baptist Academy 
67. Peter DiNovo, QB, 6-3, 210, Tarpon Springs East Lake
 68. Jordan Hawkins, DT, 6-1, 260, Jacksonville Wolfson 
69. Austin Droogsma, OL, 6-3, 290, Gulf Breeze
 70. E.J. McKenzie, WR, 6-1, 190, St. Cloud
 71. Keith Kelsey, LB, 6-2, 204, Gainesville
 72. Paris Bostick, S, 6-0, 195, Tampa Plant
 73. Shykeem Pitts, WR, 5-11, 175, Davenport Ridge Community 
74. Skai Moore, S, 6-2, 195, Davie University 
75. Christian May, OL, 6-4, 265, Lakeland Christian 
76. Ramsey Meyers, OL, 6-4, 305, Orange Park, Ridgeview 
77. Artie Burns, DB, 6-1, 175, Miami Northwestern
 78. Parker Boehme, QB, 6-2, 225, Jacksonville Sandalwood
 79. Jermaine Grace, LB, 6-1, 195, Miramar 
80. Montrell Bryant, WR, 6-1, 185, Hawthorne
 81. D.J. Juste, DB, 6-1, 185, Port St. Lucie
 82. Alton Meeks, QB, 6-3, 215, Orlando Boone
 83. Keith Bryant, DT, 6-2, 260, Delray Atlantic 
84. Marcus Clark, RB, 5-10, 175, Tallahassee, N. Florida Christian 
85. Logan McNeal, OL, 6-3, 260, St. Petersburg Lakewood
 86. Kennard Swanson, DT, 6-0, 225, Lakeland Lake Gibson 
87. George Williams, LB, 6-1, 200, Hialeah 
88. Jordan White, WR, 5-9, 170, Bartow
 89. Joe Fennell, OL, 6-4, 290, South Fort Myers
 90. Austin Logan, DB, 6-1, 175, Tallahassee Florida High 
91. Travis Tucker, QB, 6-3, 175, Lakeland Tenoroc
 92. Tyler Serpo, S, 5-10, 180, Clearwater Countryside 
93. Jordan Mullis, QB, 6-2, 180, Baldwin
 94. Tim Longmire, RB, 5-10, 185, Tallahassee Leon 
95. Chris Thompson, WR, 6-1, 175, Gainesville
 96. Mike Heuerman, TE, 6-3, 215, Naples Barron Collier 
97. Hunter Murray, OL, 6-3, 331, Panama City Arnold
 98. Walter Tucker, LB/RB, 5-11, 185, Plantation American Heritage
 99. Juwan Brown, QB, 6-1, 175, Largo
 100. Daryl Chestnut, RB, 5-9, 180, Miami Columbus




 




 

By Watson Scott Swail, President & CEO, Educational Policy Institute/EPI International  

This week at EPI’s International Conference on Student Success , I attended a session by Tom Mortenson, Senior Scholar at The Pell Institute and editor of Postsecondary Opportunity. Tom looked at the issue of predicted versus actual persistence and graduation rates at US four-year colleges and universities. Interesting stuff.

The data launched us into a dialogue about what responsibility college officials—including administrators, professors, counselors, and advisors—have to tell students where they stand with regard to prospective graduation and college success. Every institution houses the data and technology to run every prospective student through a real-time regression analysis to provide a predictive rate of success. That is, we can come up with the odds of a particular student’s chance of graduation from any institution.

If we can do this, the question is what do we do with that information? On one hand, we can surely use it to determine whether we admit or reject that student. We do that now. But for most of the institutions that are either open admission or have liberal admissions policies, these data have other potential services. In this case, if we know that Student A has a 36 percent chance of success at our institution, then what do we do with that data? The participants in Tom’s session were dialoging about whether we tell the student what we already know: that they are at risk.

One participant was adamant that it would be morally apprehensible to tell students that their odds of success are low. It would, in her words, crush their motivation and thus put them at even greater risk of failure.

I disagreed. In fact, for years I have counseled just the opposite. At our Retention 101 workshops, I advise participants that we have a moral and ethical responsibility to advise students exactly where they stand, what they need to do to succeed, and how we are able to support them.

The Mercatus Center at George Mason University has this intriguing study: individual “freedom” ratings by state.  

New York is the least free state, because of its restrictions on fatty foods and high taxes. (.) New Hampshire is the most free state, with gun laws among the most liberal in the country and middling regulation on marijuana.  

What about Oregon? We’re No. 8 overall.  

“Oregon is the freest Pacific state and the top state in terms of personal freedom. Moreover, Oregon enjoyed the greatest increase in freedom of any state since 2007 and the highest positive jump in the overall rankings (from #22 to #8). This was primarily due to big improvements in the quality of its court system, the enactment of same-sex civil unions, and a substantial decline in tax collections (from 9.7 percent to 8.8 percent of personal income).”  

Read and discuss!  

GOP U.S. Presidential debate: Check out local conservative bloggers on the debate last night. Ted Piccolo of NW Republican gives Michelle Bachmann high marks for her performance. Oregon Catalyst says Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney did best.  

Cool Schools: The Oregon House helped Gov. John Kitzhaber fulfill a promise, by passing legislation to create jobs and retrofit schools for efficient energy consumption.  

Psychiatric drugs: The Oregonian’s Nick Budnick writes about one way the state won’t save money this session. “Some 20 states restrict mental health drugs paid for by Medicaid. Not Oregon. And that’s not going to change in this session’s Legislature, even in a time of budget cuts and cost-containment.” We think “big pharma” is responsible.

Redistricting: Kitzhaber signed off on a bipartisan plan to redraw Oregon legislative districts. Few thought a divided Legislature would be able to agree on what has been a volatile issue, but lawmakers proved the skeptics wrong.

Cell phones: The Senate voted to close a loophole in the law that bans talking on a hand-held cell phone while driving. People caught talking while driving could claim the call was necessary for work. The Senate took steps to end that defense.

Disaster: A Senate committee moved forward on a measure that would ask voters to revise the state constitution to give the Legislature greater emergency powers in the event a big earthquake or other catastrophe makes it difficult or impossible for lawmakers to assemble in Salem.

Concealed handguns license: The Oregon House has sent to the Senate yet another bill to keep private the identities of people who have applied for or hold concealed-carry licenses. Democrats in the Senate are none too happy. Worse, they say this jeopardizes a bill to help domestic violence victims in Portland.  

Sine Die: Jeff Mapes is taking bets on when the 2011 legislative session might end.

–

Four of the top 10 high school seniors in the State of Virginia, according to the list compiled by Rivals.com, signed with the hometown Cavaliers in February; two signed with Virginia Tech. What does this small example say to me? It says that Al Groh has left the building, taking with him the malaise that began on the field and, slowly but surely, crept into every facet of Virginia football under his watch. Mike London has been a breath of fresh air, on the sidelines and otherwise, and Virginia Tech is taking notice. Does this mean the Cavaliers are going to actually win a Commonwealth Cup at some point in the next five years? No, it doesn’t. But it does mean that the playing field is being leveled, which is a start.

Conference
Atlantic Coast, Coastal

Location
Charlottesville, Va.

Nickname
Cavaliers

Returning starters
17 (8 offense, 9 defense)

Last year’s ranking
No. 95

2010 record
(4-8, 1-7)

Last years
re-ranking
No. 93

2011 schedule

• Sept. 3
  Williams & Mary
• Sept. 10
  at Indiana
• Sept. 17
  at U.N.C.
• Sept. 24
  Southern Miss.
• Oct. 1
  Idaho
• Oct. 15
  Georgia Tech
• Oct. 22
  N.C. St.
• Oct. 27
  at Miami (Fla.)
• Nov. 5
  at Maryland
• Nov. 12
  Duke
• Nov. 19
  at F.S.U.
• Nov. 26
  Virginia Tech

Last years prediction

Regardless of how well London takes to his new position, this year is not going to be pretty. Verica might be the best option under center, but he’s not the answer for an offense that, yet again, lacks weapons at the skill position. On the other hand, the defense is in better shape. It starts with Dowling, one of the finer cornerbacks in the F.B.S., and continues with a relatively experienced defensive front — though the group will be tested by the move to the 4-3. When looking at this roster, it will take London at least two full recruiting cycles to replenish a talent level that took a significant dip over Groh’s final few seasons. The massive reconstruction begins now. Don’t forget your hard hat.

2010 recap

In a nutshell I’m pretty sure Mike London could have gone 0-12 and still remained beloved by all the Hoos in Charlottesville, if only because he’s not Al Groh. His first year ended instead at 4-8, though 1-7 in the A.C.C. – a one-win improvement over Groh’s disastrous conclusion but one fewer victory in conference play. But we saw signs of life from the Cavaliers, even if it’s clear that this program is not close to being considered an A.C.C. contender. Virginia is close to making to making things very, very difficult for more talented opposition, however. We saw that against U.S.C. and Boston College, two narrow losses against teams much higher up on the totem pole. Want another silver lining? Take into account the fact that the offense did much of the heavy lifting last fall as the defense made the transition to a 4-3 look. If you know one thing about the future of Virginia football, know this: the defense will not be a weak link for long. If the offense can stay in the top half of the A.C.C., Virginia’s climb back into contention might take as long as initially believed.

High point A 24-19 win over then-No. 22 Miami (Fla.) on Oct. 30. It was a victory over a nationally ranked opponent, which makes it solid in its own right. The win also pushed Virginia to 4-4 entering November, needing only a split over that final month to get into bowl play. Most of all, however, was the way the Cavaliers out-toughed a far more physically gifted team, forcing the Hurricanes into several costly turnovers. That game seemed to me like it might have been a precursor of things yet to come.

Low point A loss to Duke to open November, the first of four straight defeats to end the season. The defense drew criticism in the 55-48 loss, but place some blame on an offense that turned the ball over three times; blame the team at large for committing 11 penalties for 103 yards. The year ended with another loss to Virginia Tech, this one by 30 points.

Tidbit Mike London’s keys to success in Charlottesville, in three easy steps:

Go to class.
Show class.
Treat people with dignity and respect.

That’s it. Pretty simple stuff. Good luck getting 100-plus undergraduates to get in line. I’d say two out of three ain’t bad, seeing that I never went to class, but London won’t have one without the other, and if you step out of line you’ll find yourself on the bench, in the locker room or off the roster altogether.

Tidbit (100-word preview edition) It’s that time again. Here’s how it works: I give you a quiz question; you become the first person to answer the question; you win the opportunity to pen a 100-word preview of your favorite team when it appears on the Countdown. Get it? Good. Here’s the question:

Virginia has lost seven straight games to in-state rival Virginia Tech. Can you name two in-state rivalries among B.C.S. conference programs with a winning streak of equal or greater length? The two teams do not have to technically be rivals, merely two B.C.S. conference programs that reside within the same state.

Teams already spoken for: Iowa (M Meyer), Northwestern (NUwildcat09), Oregon (Eskynyt), Pittsburgh (htp2012), Texas (Burnt Orange), Washington (Dr. Klahn).

Former players in the N.F.L.

25 OT Branden Albert (Kansas City), CB Ronde Barber (Tampa Bay), OT Will Barker (Tampa Bay), LB Ahmad Brooks (San Francisco), DT Chris Canty (New York Giants), DT Nate Collins (Jacksonville), CB Chris Cook (Minnesota), CB Ras-I Dowling (New England), LB Isaiah Ekejiuba (Detroit), LB James Farrior (Pittsburgh), OT DBrickashaw Ferguson (New York Jets), FB Rashawn Jackson (Carolina), RB Thomas Jones (Kansas City), DE Chris Long (St. Louis), TE Heath Miller (Pittsburgh), OT Eugene Monroe (Jacksonville), WR Kevin Ogletree (Dallas), RB Cedric Peerman (Cincinnati), TE John Phillips (Dallas), TE Tom Santi (Indianapolis), QB Matt Schaub (Houston), LB Clint Sintim (New York Giants), RB Jason Snelling (Atlanta), OT John St. Clair (Cleveland), TE Jonathan Stupar (Buffalo).

Arbitrary top five list

Current M.L.B. players born in Virginia
1. P Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers.
2. 3B David Wright, New York Mets.
3. P Mat Latos, San Diego.
4. OF Justin Upton, Tampa Bay.
5. OF Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota.

Coaching

Mike London (Richmond ’83), 4-8 after a single season. London brought to his first F.B.S. head coach position a familiarity with the program, extensive ties to the fertile recruiting grounds of the state, a history – albeit a small sample – of winning on the college level and a strong personality that will most definitely play well at a school like Virginia, one determined to retain its academic principles yet hungering for athletic success on the gridiron. London returned to Virginia after two extremely successful season at Richmond. He compiled a two-year mark of 24-5 with the Spiders, winning the F.C.S. national championship in 2008 and advancing to the F.C.S. quarterfinals in 2009. Yes, he inherited an enviable position at Richmond, a program already rebuilt by the current Bowling Green coach Dave Clawson, but credit London for taking a talented roster and leading it to greater heights. London previously spent six seasons as an assistant under Al Groh at Virginia (2001-4, 2006-7), with a one-year respite in 2005 as the defensive line coach for the Houston Texans. London served in that same capacity at Virginia from 2001-4, adding the title of recruiting coordinator from 2002-4. London returned to Charlottesville in 2006 as the team’s defensive coordinator, a position he held for two seasons before being hired by Richmond. Hes been a big hit thus far despite the sub-.500 mark, which I dont think will last all that long. Does the London have what it takes to lead Virginia up to and past the rival Hokies? That remains to be seen. We do know, however, that London will have the Cavaliers in bowl play in short order.

Players to watch

As long as spring injuries remain a thing of the past, this offensive line is a team strength. You couldn’t get a great feel for this group during the spring, as two would-be starters and a few reserves were limited for a good portion of time. But the dings don’t appear to be of the long-term variety, meaning Virginia will enter the 2011 season with an offensive line very close to the one in place at the end of last season: Oday Aboushi and Morgan Moses at left and right tackle, respectively, Austin Pasztor at left guard and Anthony Mihota at center. And there’s depth, believe it or not. At tackle, Virginia can tout a second pairing of Landon Bradley – who’s good enough to start, some believe – and sophomore Sean Cascarano. The only spot that’s really open to competition is right guard, where sophomore Luke Bowanko held a slight edge heading into the summer. Moses could move inside, which would push Bradley into the starting lineup, but I’m guessing that Virginia wants to keep the talented sophomore outside, where he started seven games in 2010.

The Cavaliers will really miss Keith Payne in short-yardage situations, where he was one of the A.C.C.’s best. They’ll miss Payne altogether, in fact, as his bruising, pounding running style set the tone for an offense that was vastly improved in London’s first season. There’s no replacing Payne’s worth on third-and-short, but Perry Jones (646 yards) will help recoup some of the lost production. As will redshirt freshman Kevin Parks, who may even leapfrog Perry to become Virginia’s lead back. But Payne’s departure is a big one, and I wonder whether Perry and Parks can have the same sort of impact between the tackles. Maybe fullback Max Milien can be that sort of back, but he’s not a proven ball-carrier.

Senior receiver Kris Burd started strong – three 100-yard games in September – but tailed off a bit late, and Virginia needs him to bring his top game every week as it attempts to replace Dontrelle Inman as the team’s top target. Burd (58 catches for 799 yards) and Max Snyder (30 for 393), both seniors, are the leaders of the receiver corps both on the field and off; this pair is joined by several sophomores lacking in game experience. Tim Smith and Bobby Smith will play major roles, as may incoming freshmen Darius Jennings and Dominique Terrell, two headliners of Virginia’s sterling recruiting class. Burd was limited during the spring with an injury, giving some of these youngsters opportunities to flash their worth, but he’ll be back in time for September.

Look for continued improvement from this defense as it enters year two under London’s guidance and year two running the 4-3, a new look for a program long accustomed to recruiting for and playing in the 3-4. That change won’t occur overnight for the former reason: London needed to add a few bodies up front to accommodate the change, and the line itself may be a year away from running at peak performance.

Would-be senior Zane Parr’s illogical decision to enter the N.F.L. draft robs Virginia of a starting end; at least he stands as a cautionary tale for underclassmen dreaming of the big leagues before their time. The end who decided to stay – and the one who might have had a reason to leave for the N.F.L. – is senior Cam Johnson, who led Virginia in tackles for loss (14.5) and sacks (6) a year ago. Parr’s departure means sophomore Jake Snyder steps into a starting role perhaps a year ahead of schedule, which in turn takes away some depth at the position.

Seniors Matt Conrath and Nick Jenkins return at tackle, but this pair needs to do a better job standing up against the run: Virginia had the A.C.C.’s worst rush defense last fall, thanks to a front seven that got pushed around with regularity. Junior Will Hill was the only viable reserve option during the spring, though I suppose that sophomore end Brent Urban has the size to play inside if called upon. Like at receiver, this is a position where an incoming freshman could make a difference – London added six linemen in February.

Virginia shook some things up at linebacker, beginning with junior LaRoy Reynolds’ move from the strong to the weak side. That should open some things up for Reynolds, last year’s leading tackler (66, 7 for loss), while also opening up a spot for senior Aaron Taliaferro (36 tackles, 3 for loss) on the strong side. I’m excited to see what junior Steve Greer can do in the middle: he made 59 tackles last fall despite making only one start, so he could really be an impact player against the run with the added snaps.

There’s a star on this defense. His name is Chase Minnifield, and he looks like Virginia’s next great collegiate cornerback, joining his former teammate, Ras-I Dowling, and countless others. Minnifield came on strong a year ago, when Dowling’s battle with injuries cost him seven games; Minnifield became Virginia’s top cornerback, drawing the toughest assignments and faring extremely, extremely well. With some issues up front, particularly in getting to the quarterback, Minnifield’s importance cannot be overstated.

There’s an open spot opposite Minnifield, which might be held by Devin Wallace should he return to London’s good graces after being suspended for an off-field incident. For now, however, Rico Walker and senior Dom Joseph are the favorites – for now, at least. Virginia is very excited for the arrival of true freshman Demetrious Nicholas, an in-state gem from London’s first full class. Perhaps he’s the next Minnifield, though I don’t want to get ahead of myself. Senior safeties Rodney McLeod (54 tackles) and Corey Mosley (52 tackles, 2 picks) anchor the back end of the defense, but both must clear up a few injury concerns after missing a handful of games in 2010.

Position battle(s) to watch

Quarterback Marc Verica took his lumps, on the field and off, but dusted himself off time and time again to finish with a fine senior season, albeit one that continued to be plagued by turnovers. His departure leaves Virginia scrambling to locate a replacement among four options, two of whom took snaps a year ago. That experience gives sophomores Ross Metheny and Michael Rocco a leg up on redshirt freshman Michael Strauss and true freshman David Watford, who was with the team for spring practice. Strauss is behind in terms of game experience but does have the benefit of a year in Virginia’s system; Watford is really running fourth here despite his time taking snaps during the spring. But Strauss is behind the sophomore pair, who are listed as the co-leaders under center as Virginia enters the summer. Just going off what we saw a year ago, Metheny has a slight edge over Rocco: both took snaps in garbage time, but Metheny was impressive – hitting on seven of nine attempts with a score against Florida State – during his limited opportunities. This is a competition that will continue in the fall, and even with the drawbacks of such inexperienced options I can find two clear positives: one, that all four are well-regarded, talented prospects; and two, whomever does take over might end up being a multiple-year starter, and Virginia desperately needs consistency at this position.

Game(s) to watch

The home schedule. Virginia needs to reassert itself in Charlottesville, as the road slate is not conducive to success. There are a few winnable home games, none more so than Duke, and the Cavaliers must go 5-2 at home to pave the way to a bowl berth.

Season breakdown & prediction

In a nutshell The arrow is pointed up, though not at a 90-degree angle. Virginia isn’t just going to skyrocket to the top of the A.C.C.: the ascent will be laborious, often painful, but fans can take some solace in the fact that a good slice of the dirty work has already been done. I don’t Mike London-led Virginia will be quite as bad as it was in 2010 again, and that progression begins in earnest in 2011. I’m really a fan of what he’s already achieved: London’s got after it on the recruiting trail, bringing one of the conference’s best classes during his first full cycle; he’s already had an impact on offense; and the defense, though still a work in progress, will undoubtedly improve in its second season in the 4-3. The arrow is clearly pointed up. But keep the expectations in perspective. The Cavaliers have young, talented options at quarterback but no experience, which is a worry. The receiver corps is unproven and Payne will be sorely missed in the running game, where he carried the load a year ago. As for the defense, I can’t shake the feeling that this group is one year away: the pieces really aren’t there outside of Minnifield, though help is on the way. So what’s the overall state of Virginia football in 2011? A bright future awaits, though how far Virginia goes – and I’m unsure if the Cavaliers can ever catch up with Hokies – depends on London and his continued success in recruiting. As for this season, I feel safe projecting the Cavaliers to win five games, with anything above that a pleasant surprise.

Dream season Mike London gets things going in year two, leading Virginia to a 9-3 mark overall, 6-2 in the A.C.C.

Nightmare season The Cavaliers take a step back, thanks to a youthful offense and a defense that remains a work in progress: 2-10, 1-7 in conference play.

In case you were wondering

Where do Virginia fans congregate? Begin with The Sabre, the rare independent message board that stands as the best option for a B.C.S. conference program. For recruiting coverage, check out Cavs Corner and Hoo Nation. You can also head over to The Great Blog of Virginia for a blog’s take, as well The Sabre’s The Good Ol’ Blog.

Word Count

Through 43 teams 120,527.

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