The final was Auburn 22, Oregon 19, though Auburn seemed to dominate more than that three-point margin would suggest. So much for a 41-31 Oregon win, as I predicted prior to kickoff. What about the handful of factors I believed to be key to the final outcome? Was Oregon really able to slow down Cam Newton, or prevent the deep pass? Was Auburn able to negate Oregon’s advantage on special teams? Let’s take a look.
Can Oregon slow down Cam Newton? To a degree, though a painful back injury — I believe one that occurred in the first half — limited Newton’s success on the ground. The Heisman winner rushed for 64 yards on 22 carries, with that yardage total standing as his third-lowest of the season against F.B.S. competition. Newton did get it done through the air, however, minus one bad interception. He ended the day 20 of 34 for 265 yards, 2 scores and that interception — pretty good numbers, I’d say.
Can Oregon prevent the deep pass? No passes over 40 yards, though there was a 39-yard completion to Phillip Lutzenkirchen and a 30-yard scoring strike to Emory Blake. Newton also found Kodi Burns for another touchdown, though that was more due to Burns making a nice run after the catch than the throw. Receivers did get deep a number of times only to have Newton barely overthrow them, so the potential was there for more big plays in the passing game.
Will Oregon dominate in the return game? Nope. Not even close. The Ducks had a long kickoff return of 23 yards and a long punt return of only four yards – that last number is shocking. From field goals to coverage, Auburn won the special teams battle.
Does Auburn have the depth to combat Oregon’s pace? This worry was put front and center on the opening kickoff, when reserve defensive back Eric Smith went down to injury. Smith returned, but the question did arise: what if Auburn loses one or two defensive starters? Will there be enough depth to keep pace with Oregon? Auburn did so with ease, as we saw throughout the evening. Only once did Auburn seem gassed, when several defenders were seen gasping for breath at the end of the first quarter.
Which team will win the turnover battle? Each team turned the ball over twice, though you could saw that Oregon won the turnover battle. It was Newton’s late fumble that led to Oregon tying the game with less than two minutes remaining. The Ducks tossed a pair of interceptions, while Auburn threw one pick to go with that lost fumble.
Is it as simple as controlling the clock? Oregon held onto the ball for 27:03, roughly its season average. The offense still never found any sense of rhythm, so time of possession was never a concern for either team. Auburn made the most of its five-minute edge, however, running 86 plays to Oregon’s 73.
What it comes down to a field goal? Before the game, I said Auburn held a slight edge in the kicking game. I cited Wes Byrum’s experience as the deciding factor, as the senior had made several big kicks both this season and throughout his career. Guess what: Byrum made two field goals, including the game-winner as the final whistle blew.
Can either team dictate the tempo? Auburn dictated the tempo on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. As noted, the offense ran 12 more plays; the defense was a menace for nearly all of Oregon’s 73 plays, forcing a pair of turnovers, landing a huge safety in the second quarter and harassing Darron Thomas and LaMichael James for 60 minutes.
Oregon will win if… Looking at each statement:
It holds Cam Newton to less than 100 yards on the ground — hit.
It prevents Auburn from completing any pass greater than 30 yards — missed.
Has at least one big play on special teams, whether it be a big kickoff return, a punt return for a score or a blocked kick — missed.
LaMichael James rushes for 150 or more yards — missed.
Quarterback Darron Thomas does not commit a turnover — missed.
The defense keeps Auburn from converting more than 45 percent of its third downs — missed.
Auburn will win if.. Looking at each statement:
It holds LaMichael James to less than 100 yards rushing — hit.
It forces Oregon into two or more turnovers — hit.
It prevents any big returns from Cliff Harris or Kenjon Barner — hit.
Cam Newton plays up to his normal standard — I’ll still say hit.
The offense leans heavily on the running game but hits on one scoring pass of 40 or more yards in the first half — missed.
The defense is able to effectively rotate in substitutes along the defensive line and in the secondary — hit.
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