Alabama and Auburn have been the exceptions to the rule. Both the Crimson Tide and Tigers rolled through all comers, finishing 14-0 en route to taking home the national championship. The two programs are the latter pair in the SEC’s run of five consecutive titles, joining Florida in 2006 and 2008 and L.S.U. in 2007. It’s from these three title-winning teams that the perception that an SEC team can drop a game in the regular season and still advance was first born: Florida dropped one game in both 2006 and 2008, while the Tigers lost twice yet still earned a spot in the B.C.S. National Championship Game. It’s like an extra bullet in an SEC contender’s gun, in a way.
You think about these things when considering Oregon’s date with L.S.U. to open the regular season. The two teams will meet in prime time, 8 p.m. on the East Coast, at Cowboys Stadium, with early-season supremacy hanging in the balance. Such a highly-anticipated date with two so highly-ranked teams is rare in September; it’s rarer still to see the two meet on the first Saturday of the year.
Even though it’s only Sept. 3, you can’t ignore the game’s season-long ramifications. In those old pre-B.C.S. days, a non-conference loss in September often did irreparable harm to a team’s title hopes: seven of the national champs in the decade prior to the birth of the B.C.S. in 1998 finished the year undefeated; the lone exceptions were Miami (Fla.) in 1989, Florida State in 1993 and Florida in 1996.
Those seemingly immune to a loss or two during the B.C.S. era? The SEC, of course. U.S.C. in 2003 is the only non-SEC team to claim a title while losing a game in the regular season since 1998; of course, the Trojans shared the title that fall with one-loss L.S.U. — the two split the two major polls, though L.S.U. was the B.C.S. champ.
Which brings me back to Oregon. It’s not a stretch to say that the Ducks could throw their title hopes away with a loss to the Tigers. Conversely, you can’t say that L.S.U.’s hopes would evaporate with a loss to the Ducks. I think we have a large enough sample size to make that statement. In essence, this is a must-win for the Ducks. But we already knew that.
Could Oregon survive an opening-game loss to L.S.U.? Consider the timing: it’s Sept. 4, not Nov. 4, and it’s far easier for a team to make up ground with 11 games left than try to rebound after falling out of the hunt over the last month. That there are 11 regular season games and a potential conference title game still be to played lies firmly in Oregon’s favor.
But it’s not just about the timing. It’s the depth in the SEC that provides teams like L.S.U. a number of opportunities to reverse the tide of an early loss. If the Tigers lose to Oregon, L.S.U. could theoretically restate its case by the end of September, let alone by December: the Tigers end the first month with road dates against Mississippi State and West Virginia.
Then there are more SEC games against Florida, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas. L.S.U., as it has in the past, could rebound from an 0-1 start and still play for a national title. I don’t think we could say the same about Oregon. Above all else, consider that the Ducks would be competing with other one-loss teams from the SEC, if not with a one-loss team from the A.C.C. or Big 10, for example.
And the schedule won’t provide the marquee opportunities needed for Oregon to rejoin the hunt. From Sept. 10 onwards:
Sept. 10 Nevada
Sept. 17 Missouri State
Sept. 24 at Arizona
Oct. 6 California
Oct. 15 Arizona State
Oct. 22 at Colorado
Oct. 29 Washington State
Nov. 5 at Washington
Nov. 12 at Stanford
Nov. 19 U.S.C.
Nov. 26 Oregon State
Stanford’s terrific; some are high on Arizona State; Arizona is dangerous; Washington will be pesky; U.S.C. always has talent; and you never know about Oregon State. But the schedule simply doesn’t match up with the one at L.S.U. — or at Alabama, Arkansas or another SEC rival.
All that makes Oregon’s opener with L.S.U. an absolute must-win. A convincing win would vault the Ducks into the top spot of the polls, I’d think, which Oregon could then ride all the way to an undefeated season. A loss, whether by a touchdown or three touchdowns, would knock Oregon out of the mix for the entire year. If that doesn’t make this a must-win, I’m not sure what does.
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- B.C.S. Makeover: Conference Edition
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- The F.B.S. and the N.C.A.A. Tournament
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